FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION FORECAST

In the next ten years, use of nitrogen in the EU-27 is expected to increase by 3.6%, a confirmation of the positive trend seen last year, while phosphorus and potassium are expected to decline by 4.4% and 2.6% respectively. By 2017, EFMA Forecasters expect fertilizers to supply European farmers with 11.0 Mt nitrogen, 3.0 Mt phosphorus and 3.4 Mt potassium.

 

This is still a substantial negative trend from the consumption peak of the Seventies and the Eighties: by 2017, nitrogen will have decreased by 28% in the EU-27, compared to 1986 when the nitrogen consumption peaked. There will also be a decrease of 67% phosphorus and 61% potassium, compared to 1979, when the consumption of phosphorus and potassium peaked.

 

In the long-term Forecast (2016/17), we still foresee a general decrease of all nutrients in the EU-15, but more moderate than was forecasted last year. The only exceptions are the increases in N consumption in Austria and Sweden due to a strong development of energy crops. In addition, there is a slight increase of all nutrients in Spain due to the development of irrigation.

 

In the EU-12 on the other hand, with the exception of Slovenia, consumption of all nutrients will increase. However, the variation amongst countries can be particularly important with regards to P and K: Bulgaria, for instance, foresees a 48% increase of P, while the increase is only 10% in Romania. Poland, the biggest agricultural country (accounting for approximately 55% of the nutrient consumption), foresees a positive development for N, P and K consumption, albeit on a more moderate level than foreseen in 2006. As a consequence, the significant development of nitrogen consumption in the new Member States will counteract the decrease in EU-15 consumption, resulting in an overall increase of nutrient consumption for the whole EU-27. The increase in the EU-27 consumption is actually more significant than was foreseen last year.

 

Likewise, the development of energy crops (biomass and biofuels) throughout the EU-27 will continue to partially compensate the negative impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform on P and K consumption, and will contribute to the increase (3.6%) in N consumption.

How the EFMA Forecast is Produced

The EFMA Forecast is an annual exercise that respects the following procedure:

• In spring, a European scenario is developed using quantitative information (e.g. from USDA, FAPRI and the European Commission) and qualitative analyses made by the EFMA Forecasters. 
• Between May and July, each National Forecaster adapts this general scenario to the specific situation in his country.
• These resulting national forecasts are then analysed and discussed by all experts in July and are integrated into this overall EFMA Forecast. 
  • In 16 countries (EU-15 and Poland), representing 90% of the EU-25 agricultural area, the Forecast is an expert-based approach using the national forecasts produced by our members.
  • In the 11 other countries, the evaluation of the production and crop area is based on the agro-economic model used by the European Commission. The application rates for N, P and K nutrients on each crop are based on an agronomic model developed by the EFMA Forecasters, as there is less specific knowledge available.

The EFMA Forecast is based on a crop-approach for all the EU-27 countries, where fertilizer consumption is evaluated by assessing area and nutrient application rates for each crop. However, two different approaches are used:

In 16 countries (EU-15 and Poland), representing 90% of the EU-25 agricultural area, the Forecast is an expert-based approach using the national forecasts produced by our members.

In the 11 other countries, the evaluation of the production and crop area is based on the agro-economic model used by the European Commission. The application rates for N, P and K nutrients on each crop are based on an agronomic model developed by the EFMA Forecasters, as there is less specific knowledge available.